Research was conducted by Deloitte and 4 scenarios were identified:
• Winner takes all : Consolidation of markets respond more quicker than most operators
• Turf wars : New and existing operators fight it out for profitable market and are connected by banks trying to protect their business interest against mobile payments
• New entries: into the market from various sectors with huge added value than the traditional carriers ,foreign media and even advertising groups are viewing telecommunication as a ready-made channel to market
• Owning the consumer: Telecommunication has the consumer’s interest in mind as the end goal. They have laid the foundation for connectivity and access
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A decade of rapid GDP growth
• Africa has grown at 8.7% CAGR in real GDP terms between 2000 and 2010, making it the second fastest growing continent in the world, only behind china-propelled emerging Asia. Third party forecasts suggest Africa will continue to grow very rapidly at c.5.5% CAGR to 2017
• Part of this rapid GDP growth relates to improved international trade and an accelerated pace of foreign direct investment, in particular from emerging super-powers such as China and Brazil. Many major multinational corporations invest in Africa, both in natural resources, infrastructure, goods and services. Large brands such as Unilever, Diageo and Parmalat have entered Africa’s consumer market
• There surely remain impediments to growth , road, rail infrastructure and power can be scarce, political instability and corruption are still widespread, regional integration is progressing only slowly but all these elements are improving and making long-lasting impact.
• Africa’s contribution to global GDP remains small at 2.7% but growth experienced to 2010 has put total consumer spending in Africa ahead of Russia and equal to India, albeit fragmented across many countries
• Whilst there is a wide disparity among income levels across the continent, GDP growth is positively impacting individual earnings and private consumption, migrating an accelerating number of people into the African middle class – those spending between $2- and $20 a day
• Between 2000 and 2010 the number of people in Africa’s middle class grew by 130m, forecasts from the African Development Bank suggest that at least 100m more people may become middle class by 2020
